This is hard to read because Jordan has always been one of my favorite places to live and visit in the Arab world. Nice people, good food, not so fancy like the gulf, etc. just good old Jordan who helped its neighbors like Iraq and Syria taking in hundreds of thousands or refugees because of USA BS and madness during Bush.
Also, King Abdullah is a Trekkie and he did a cameo on Voyager. I met him in Amman in the nineties before he was crown prince at a Star Trek event. I digress. Sorry.
the reason for my post is to encourage all of you substackers not to forget the importance of reading history books. Right now I’m reading two books by Nur Masalha, a UK-educated super important Palestinian historian and professor who has meticulously studied archeology and ancient history to publish: PALESTINE: a Four Thousand Year History. I bought the hardcover but it is also available for free on Libby so I checked it out on my laptop also (bc grandma needs bigger font at night).
It is easy to read. I’ve already underlined and starred so many important passages to quote in future conversations.
I also bought Nur Masalha: The Bible & Zionism, which I will read next.
I view the Bible as fiction but so many Americans think it’s a history book. It’s not. I guess it’s why so many Americans support murder and mayhem and bombing and burning children alive??
That's an excellent set of recommendations, and this is also a good way to become more efficient cultural guerilla fighters.
Israeli media has more than a bunch of pieces about 'Fear in Jordan', because of what happened to Syria. This is psychological warfare against Jordan, I have no doubt. Something very bad is coming
It’s the hope that’s gets you! Like many, I’ve spent the last 14 months in a state of horror at the on-going, live-streamed, west-supported genocide. I literally cannot get my head around it - it’s as if it’s 1943 in Europe, with the holocaust in full swing, televised, the Nazis are crowing about it, and the allies are telling us there is nothing to see, to move on, oh and we will arrest you if you keep going on about it. At the same time, it really felt that Israel was slowly being strangled to death by the resistance, and this I found deeply deeply satisfying. I actually talked myself into thinking Israel would be done and gone inside maybe a decade. Then, inside a month it all gets turned on a dime - Hezbollah withdraws from the conflict (I guess they didn’t actually have all those precision guided weapons systems - not in the numbers claimed, anyway), and Syria is neutralised inside a week. Now, it feels like Israel won the 67 war again, x 10. It’s not really any compensation that none of it could have been done without the US (and late to the party - Turkey), because done it has been. Israel’s strategic position is now (in the conventional sense, and at least for the medium term) assuredly secure.
Or is it?
I hesitate here, since almost all of my expectations over the last year plus have been dashed. Here goes……. Palestine: An extremely bleak time ahead - continuing genocide, supercharged ethnic cleansing, expanded Apartheid. What Palestinians will have to endure going forward, can hardly be imagined. Iran: Though it must now be regarded as removed from the west Asia security calculation, it still exists and is essentially intact & undamaged. It’s lost Hezbollah & Syria, and will likely lose Iraq. I see it choosing to play no further part in the affairs of Palestine. If it values it’s security, it should increase its missile procurement by an order of magnitude (use the money saved by the loss of its allies), go full steam ahead with BRICS, and deepen cooperation on all levels with Russia & China. Speaking of Russia & China: They need to wake up, and take seriously the fight they are in with the weakening hegmon. They need to stop the rot, and commit fully to the defence of Iran. USA: It will continue to do what it does - colour revolutions, coups, info warfare, destabilisations, proxy wars, and military interventions, to any country anywhere, that does not submit fully to US overlordship. I think it can carry on with this conduct for a very long time to come. Yes, it’s gonna lose huge in Ukraine, but so what? It hasn’t won a war since 1945, but how as that affected its ability to exercise global hegemony? Israel: Really the only hope I believe now, for the destruction of this abomination of a state, is a combination of massive overreach, and internal division. Hubris & nemesis. Going forward, they could get into a long term, casualty heavy ground conflict in Lebanon (outflanking Hezbollah positions in the south must be v tempting). They will likely provoke the ire & opposition of Jihadis in Syria. They will probably try to push the remaining Gazans into Egypt, potentially destabilising that country’s government beyond the point of collapse (a very long shared border, with 90 million raging and out of control Egyptians cursing Israel forever, and vowing its destruction). They will almost certainly try to do the same with the WB, and with exactly the same results. They may even demolish the Al Aqsa mosque & rebuild the temple. All of the above are hubristic actions, which cannot be helpful (British understatement) to building regional acceptance for the crusader colony in west Asia. While all that is going on, internal divisions within Israel will fester. Settlers vs metropolitans, religious vs secular, have-nots vs haves, Netanyahu fans vs haters. Maybe all this will continue to encourage emigration by the most valuable citizens, discourage tourism, discourage investment, increase revulsion across the globe, decrease support for Israel from young Jews in the diaspora.
I have always laughed at Abdullah. The prim and proper English-speaking Arab stooge. Not impressed. A dictator that says please and thank you and is bought off.
To me this game should be seen in the global perspective. It could be that the perceived threat from the east makes the west more inclined to consolidate power in a preparation for future escalation with the east, hence the need for secure resources and space which could be what they are thinking of. With all due respect to Snotrich I don't think it’s up to him (or Shitiyahu) to decide on this. As was pointed out by nearby comment (Attacking the Devils) Israel itself is looking unstable, the rise of Judeo-Nazism will continue to alienate those (~40%) that hoped for a little sense of normality, and they are the segment the country can’t do without. So giving the Isra-Nazis even more power could be a mistake on the empire’s side (that much they really care about Israel...) It’s all to do with the bigger game the empire is playing here. Mind you that the west itself is in trouble internally, so it’s hard to even say who are the main actors here - is it really west Vs east(?) This job is up to our intelligence organisations to find out but they don’t seem to work for us, the public, do they? I sense intelligence organisation (like GCHQ) is trying to be our ‘friend’ as they try to maintain image and the diminishing trust in the system. All that said the short-term prospects for Middle East stability don't look good at the moment and despite what the map says Israel remains a toxic-mess that it has been for decades. I could be wrong, and often I am, but this is hardly the picture of a rising power to me.
I never said that Israel is going to succeed in any of this; it has never found complete success in any of its endless schemes. What is different now is the 'end of days' atmosphere and the singular power Israel has over US politics. This, combined with the historic desires for expansion eastward, treasures me Israel is not done destabilizing and expanding. And Smotrich is not the boss, but the boss allows him to speak and does not contradict him, and that's a message in itself
You are probably right about Jordan. Syria's fall brought back a memory of mine you might like.
When I was in college, I took a Middle East Politics course taught by a Syrian Christian from Homs, Dr. Souheil Tawil. I liked him so much I had him over for dinner with my parents, who were always ambivalent about Israel. This was in 1978, I believe. My dad asked if Israel was comparable to the Crusades, probably because Dr. Tawil was Christian.
I remember him answering, "Let Israel conquer all of Jordan and Syria, even Iraq and Egypt. Then they will try to control it all, and then they will collapse. Just like the Crusaders did."
The Crusaders had no business there. Eventually even they figured that out and went home. A bunch of eastern Europeans has no business there, either, and will eventually learn the same lesson.
A direct confrontation with Iran is one way to go, but other than that over-extension, combined with international pressure, is going to be the deciding factor in Israel's fall
-
Out of curiosity, I googled the names of your teacher and found this page. Is this him? Seems like he was loved by many
That's him. He was a great guy. He and his brother owned a bar once, with a stage, and they'd invite local bands to play. I had a lot of good times there.
The British Empire can't help itself. It just couldn't let go of its imperialist ways both in action and attitude. Having created the monster America, it also created the monster 'Israel' against the wishes of Montagu who could see right through the racist aims of both Balfour and Churchill.
It was a genius plan to utilize Zionism. So rather than the US being securely in the pocket of Israel, I'd say it is Netanyahu who is the useful idiot (along with the Zionists and Zionism itself) along with the European Jews shipped to function as human shields (both physically and politically) ensuring any attack on 'Israel' is down to hatred of Jews and anyone questioning the creation of a 'homeland for the Jews' must be an antisemite - even though the forefathers of the European Jews never set foot in the Levant.
They may make a few bold moves as with any dying Empire, but can't see how it could be sustainable while people are leaving, divesting from and hating 'Israel' and the occupying forces are having to fund themselves via GoFundMe. They'd be better off heading to Syria and being paid as a mercenary.
I agree with this assessment. That decision by the Brits was just as historically vile and disgusting as the decision to butcher American natives, or starve Indians to death. I hope we will see the brutal fall and collapse of that house of barbarism in our lifetime
No desirable outcome remains. It feels as though the expansion of Israel's rampage has diminished the Gaza Genocide in terms of the world's focus and attention. Will Israel now accelerate the pace of atrocities in the Gaza killing fields because they see the world is distracted by the expansion?
The world hasn't forgotten Gaza. It was even on BBC R4 this morning (listening to it so no-one else has to). Israel is bankrupt (both morally and financially) and can't afford to pay its soldiers. This is why they are on GoFundMe looking for people to pay their bills/fund the genocide. 'Israel' is hated worldwide and many of the bigger players have left. Yes, it will get backing from the US, but how long will those living below the poverty line in America stand for money pouring into the ugly Vegas 2/Tel Aviv? Israel is the dying, angry child in the corner and it will take as many people with it as it can - especially Palestinians. Trump may not get to choose if he's MAGA or MIGA (the decision won't be up to him) - if it's the latter, TPTB could also bring America down. Good riddance.
I’m old enough to remember that the monster Ariel Sharon made some hints about this a couple of decades ago. The frightening scenario you outline is possible, and having lived in Israel you know better than I. However during these events during the last 14 months, I have thought of another possibility - that the anger in civil society of client states like Jordan and Egypt at their leaders for doing basically nothing to stop the genocide in Gaza, will destabilize these regimes and cause their collapse due to popular revolts. I still agree with Ilan Pappe that we witnessing zionism in its terminal stage and regimes like it cause a lot of violence and destruction as they go down. I remember the final years of apartheid South Africa - the violence against its own population, arming destructive counterrevolutionary movements in Angola and Mozambique, violence against the population in Namibia and so on.
It was always the game plan. They never had inhibitions. But now they are really feeling like it's the end of days, and it has a lot to do with the rise of the religious right wing, who are truly insane with violent mystical nationalism
This is hard to read because Jordan has always been one of my favorite places to live and visit in the Arab world. Nice people, good food, not so fancy like the gulf, etc. just good old Jordan who helped its neighbors like Iraq and Syria taking in hundreds of thousands or refugees because of USA BS and madness during Bush.
Also, King Abdullah is a Trekkie and he did a cameo on Voyager. I met him in Amman in the nineties before he was crown prince at a Star Trek event. I digress. Sorry.
the reason for my post is to encourage all of you substackers not to forget the importance of reading history books. Right now I’m reading two books by Nur Masalha, a UK-educated super important Palestinian historian and professor who has meticulously studied archeology and ancient history to publish: PALESTINE: a Four Thousand Year History. I bought the hardcover but it is also available for free on Libby so I checked it out on my laptop also (bc grandma needs bigger font at night).
It is easy to read. I’ve already underlined and starred so many important passages to quote in future conversations.
I also bought Nur Masalha: The Bible & Zionism, which I will read next.
I view the Bible as fiction but so many Americans think it’s a history book. It’s not. I guess it’s why so many Americans support murder and mayhem and bombing and burning children alive??
That's an excellent set of recommendations, and this is also a good way to become more efficient cultural guerilla fighters.
Israeli media has more than a bunch of pieces about 'Fear in Jordan', because of what happened to Syria. This is psychological warfare against Jordan, I have no doubt. Something very bad is coming
It’s the hope that’s gets you! Like many, I’ve spent the last 14 months in a state of horror at the on-going, live-streamed, west-supported genocide. I literally cannot get my head around it - it’s as if it’s 1943 in Europe, with the holocaust in full swing, televised, the Nazis are crowing about it, and the allies are telling us there is nothing to see, to move on, oh and we will arrest you if you keep going on about it. At the same time, it really felt that Israel was slowly being strangled to death by the resistance, and this I found deeply deeply satisfying. I actually talked myself into thinking Israel would be done and gone inside maybe a decade. Then, inside a month it all gets turned on a dime - Hezbollah withdraws from the conflict (I guess they didn’t actually have all those precision guided weapons systems - not in the numbers claimed, anyway), and Syria is neutralised inside a week. Now, it feels like Israel won the 67 war again, x 10. It’s not really any compensation that none of it could have been done without the US (and late to the party - Turkey), because done it has been. Israel’s strategic position is now (in the conventional sense, and at least for the medium term) assuredly secure.
Or is it?
I hesitate here, since almost all of my expectations over the last year plus have been dashed. Here goes……. Palestine: An extremely bleak time ahead - continuing genocide, supercharged ethnic cleansing, expanded Apartheid. What Palestinians will have to endure going forward, can hardly be imagined. Iran: Though it must now be regarded as removed from the west Asia security calculation, it still exists and is essentially intact & undamaged. It’s lost Hezbollah & Syria, and will likely lose Iraq. I see it choosing to play no further part in the affairs of Palestine. If it values it’s security, it should increase its missile procurement by an order of magnitude (use the money saved by the loss of its allies), go full steam ahead with BRICS, and deepen cooperation on all levels with Russia & China. Speaking of Russia & China: They need to wake up, and take seriously the fight they are in with the weakening hegmon. They need to stop the rot, and commit fully to the defence of Iran. USA: It will continue to do what it does - colour revolutions, coups, info warfare, destabilisations, proxy wars, and military interventions, to any country anywhere, that does not submit fully to US overlordship. I think it can carry on with this conduct for a very long time to come. Yes, it’s gonna lose huge in Ukraine, but so what? It hasn’t won a war since 1945, but how as that affected its ability to exercise global hegemony? Israel: Really the only hope I believe now, for the destruction of this abomination of a state, is a combination of massive overreach, and internal division. Hubris & nemesis. Going forward, they could get into a long term, casualty heavy ground conflict in Lebanon (outflanking Hezbollah positions in the south must be v tempting). They will likely provoke the ire & opposition of Jihadis in Syria. They will probably try to push the remaining Gazans into Egypt, potentially destabilising that country’s government beyond the point of collapse (a very long shared border, with 90 million raging and out of control Egyptians cursing Israel forever, and vowing its destruction). They will almost certainly try to do the same with the WB, and with exactly the same results. They may even demolish the Al Aqsa mosque & rebuild the temple. All of the above are hubristic actions, which cannot be helpful (British understatement) to building regional acceptance for the crusader colony in west Asia. While all that is going on, internal divisions within Israel will fester. Settlers vs metropolitans, religious vs secular, have-nots vs haves, Netanyahu fans vs haters. Maybe all this will continue to encourage emigration by the most valuable citizens, discourage tourism, discourage investment, increase revulsion across the globe, decrease support for Israel from young Jews in the diaspora.
Maybe all there is is hope?
As much as I like, admire, and respect you, Alon; May you be wrong!
I have always laughed at Abdullah. The prim and proper English-speaking Arab stooge. Not impressed. A dictator that says please and thank you and is bought off.
To me this game should be seen in the global perspective. It could be that the perceived threat from the east makes the west more inclined to consolidate power in a preparation for future escalation with the east, hence the need for secure resources and space which could be what they are thinking of. With all due respect to Snotrich I don't think it’s up to him (or Shitiyahu) to decide on this. As was pointed out by nearby comment (Attacking the Devils) Israel itself is looking unstable, the rise of Judeo-Nazism will continue to alienate those (~40%) that hoped for a little sense of normality, and they are the segment the country can’t do without. So giving the Isra-Nazis even more power could be a mistake on the empire’s side (that much they really care about Israel...) It’s all to do with the bigger game the empire is playing here. Mind you that the west itself is in trouble internally, so it’s hard to even say who are the main actors here - is it really west Vs east(?) This job is up to our intelligence organisations to find out but they don’t seem to work for us, the public, do they? I sense intelligence organisation (like GCHQ) is trying to be our ‘friend’ as they try to maintain image and the diminishing trust in the system. All that said the short-term prospects for Middle East stability don't look good at the moment and despite what the map says Israel remains a toxic-mess that it has been for decades. I could be wrong, and often I am, but this is hardly the picture of a rising power to me.
I never said that Israel is going to succeed in any of this; it has never found complete success in any of its endless schemes. What is different now is the 'end of days' atmosphere and the singular power Israel has over US politics. This, combined with the historic desires for expansion eastward, treasures me Israel is not done destabilizing and expanding. And Smotrich is not the boss, but the boss allows him to speak and does not contradict him, and that's a message in itself
You are probably right about Jordan. Syria's fall brought back a memory of mine you might like.
When I was in college, I took a Middle East Politics course taught by a Syrian Christian from Homs, Dr. Souheil Tawil. I liked him so much I had him over for dinner with my parents, who were always ambivalent about Israel. This was in 1978, I believe. My dad asked if Israel was comparable to the Crusades, probably because Dr. Tawil was Christian.
I remember him answering, "Let Israel conquer all of Jordan and Syria, even Iraq and Egypt. Then they will try to control it all, and then they will collapse. Just like the Crusaders did."
The Crusaders had no business there. Eventually even they figured that out and went home. A bunch of eastern Europeans has no business there, either, and will eventually learn the same lesson.
You're right, I like this story very much.
A direct confrontation with Iran is one way to go, but other than that over-extension, combined with international pressure, is going to be the deciding factor in Israel's fall
-
Out of curiosity, I googled the names of your teacher and found this page. Is this him? Seems like he was loved by many
https://www.missionparks.com/obituaries/Souheil-Tawil-2/#!/TributeWall
That's him. He was a great guy. He and his brother owned a bar once, with a stage, and they'd invite local bands to play. I had a lot of good times there.
The British Empire can't help itself. It just couldn't let go of its imperialist ways both in action and attitude. Having created the monster America, it also created the monster 'Israel' against the wishes of Montagu who could see right through the racist aims of both Balfour and Churchill.
It was a genius plan to utilize Zionism. So rather than the US being securely in the pocket of Israel, I'd say it is Netanyahu who is the useful idiot (along with the Zionists and Zionism itself) along with the European Jews shipped to function as human shields (both physically and politically) ensuring any attack on 'Israel' is down to hatred of Jews and anyone questioning the creation of a 'homeland for the Jews' must be an antisemite - even though the forefathers of the European Jews never set foot in the Levant.
They may make a few bold moves as with any dying Empire, but can't see how it could be sustainable while people are leaving, divesting from and hating 'Israel' and the occupying forces are having to fund themselves via GoFundMe. They'd be better off heading to Syria and being paid as a mercenary.
Great article. Thank you.
I agree with this assessment. That decision by the Brits was just as historically vile and disgusting as the decision to butcher American natives, or starve Indians to death. I hope we will see the brutal fall and collapse of that house of barbarism in our lifetime
Fuck😞
No desirable outcome remains. It feels as though the expansion of Israel's rampage has diminished the Gaza Genocide in terms of the world's focus and attention. Will Israel now accelerate the pace of atrocities in the Gaza killing fields because they see the world is distracted by the expansion?
Yes, I think it will. It does
The world hasn't forgotten Gaza. It was even on BBC R4 this morning (listening to it so no-one else has to). Israel is bankrupt (both morally and financially) and can't afford to pay its soldiers. This is why they are on GoFundMe looking for people to pay their bills/fund the genocide. 'Israel' is hated worldwide and many of the bigger players have left. Yes, it will get backing from the US, but how long will those living below the poverty line in America stand for money pouring into the ugly Vegas 2/Tel Aviv? Israel is the dying, angry child in the corner and it will take as many people with it as it can - especially Palestinians. Trump may not get to choose if he's MAGA or MIGA (the decision won't be up to him) - if it's the latter, TPTB could also bring America down. Good riddance.
I’m old enough to remember that the monster Ariel Sharon made some hints about this a couple of decades ago. The frightening scenario you outline is possible, and having lived in Israel you know better than I. However during these events during the last 14 months, I have thought of another possibility - that the anger in civil society of client states like Jordan and Egypt at their leaders for doing basically nothing to stop the genocide in Gaza, will destabilize these regimes and cause their collapse due to popular revolts. I still agree with Ilan Pappe that we witnessing zionism in its terminal stage and regimes like it cause a lot of violence and destruction as they go down. I remember the final years of apartheid South Africa - the violence against its own population, arming destructive counterrevolutionary movements in Angola and Mozambique, violence against the population in Namibia and so on.
It was always the game plan. They never had inhibitions. But now they are really feeling like it's the end of days, and it has a lot to do with the rise of the religious right wing, who are truly insane with violent mystical nationalism
Is it not the end of days?
As convincing as it is bleak.