When Israel is probably going to attack, according to the Jewish calendar, and the role the US is playing in all of this, including its plans for regime change in Iran
Your “drunken son of a powerful politician” analogy touches on a way I like to look at such situations: through the lens of that notable quote attributed to Brutish (sic) Lord Acton -- “power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Israel thinks it has absolute power, because it has the U.S. behind it. Or beneath it. Or because it has parasited itself inside there like one of those hideous Guinea worms. In any case, the genozioniders believe they have absolute power. So they can do the most corrupt, murderous things possible. With impunity! I reckon the IsraelUS combo is NOT as powerful as they delude themselves to be. The rest of the world is out there, and they will have a few things to say. Reality itself will put a bitch-slap on the double-headed hydra. It WILL end as you predict -- with the end of Israel. The only question is, how many others’ lives will end with it?
Ok Alon, I had to read this post twice to understand fully what you are suggesting might happen. This is all excellent. I see a possible book here, that’s how interesting this is. Here’s my thoughts as you continue to observe the last few weeks of the disastrous Biden administration part of this:
- Blinken has been a horrible SecState, as everyone knows. He doesn’t have the education or background needed, the stamina, nor the personality. Compare him to secretary Colin Powell, for instance, even tho he was tricked into lying at the United Nations about WMD, all of us at State loved and admired him, and he was super admired at DOD as well. He was a leader with tons of experience, etc. Biden has no one like that because he thinks he’s so smart he didn’t need them. Wrong!!
- Jake Sullivan is Biden’s Nationality Security Adviser but he has been mostly out of the picture on Gaza. He has tons of State Dept. past experience, is smart and reliable. Where is he in all of this. Where does he stand?
- Matthew Miller is a nobody, don’t waste your time on him, that is a nothing job. No policy input, no ideas, he’s like a soap ad on TV, but he looks like an ass so people like to talk about him.
- yes, USG is acting like the father of a reckless teenage driver. People thought Biden knew foreign policy because of his one hundred years in the Senate. but he sat in DC for all those years having lunches and meeting people. He went to law school, he met lots of people, but he is a horrible judge of character. Then he kisses Netanyahu and the genocide begins.
- Everyone. Everyone. Everyone in the Biden administration is job hunting full time and barely doing anything else. Including Blinken who will join some huge you know what: AIPAC- type of thing. He’s calling people on the Secretary’s plane and updating his resume to include this last useless visit. The only one not looking yet is Kamala bc she’s 50-50 gonna be POTUS. (president of the U.S.)
- American does not remember and we don’t care. Thus on nov 6 everybody in DC including Biden is a nobody. The DEM political appointees have used up all of their sick leave and they depart for the jobs they spent the past six months applying for. If trump wins, Biden can do nothing nothing nothing. Jill starts packing.
- As you have clearly laid out in your posts, things are crazy and it’s a very unpredictable time, most of all for the devastation facing everyone in Gaza. Unfortunately the USG thinks it’s a movie set and does not ever think of the lives at stake overseas and especially not if they are Arabs.
I agree with everything you said here. And I think it's bound to be crazier: an Iran-West war is weeks or months aways. I'm also fairly certain Trump has this: this is going to be a very interesting time to be an American. One unlike any other
To me the separation people make between Israel and America should have been questioned a long time ago. It’s a single band of fraudsters (not two). No, no, just one. A single one. That’s how they operate. It’s a fact. Not my opinion.
Israel has died in 1948 the moment it was born. It was a stillbirth. Why am I saying this? Because Israel was (and still is) a FRAUD. Why people don’t see it, is beyond me. It must be a social process, just because the newspapers call Israel a State and it has some letterhead saying: MEDINAT ISRAEL, doesn’t mean the fraudsters aren't lying to us.
How can Israel be a state? It has always been a mechanism for agitation.
It has always been a tormentor of its own citizens and its neighbours.
What "State" feeds its children on trauma and sickness as a fixed diet from birth?
How the ENTIRE academic sphere in “ISRAEL” have went along with this national festival???
People need to grasp the magnitude of the madness and use language accordingly (and I admit its not easy thing to do) to describe this entity. It must be a FRAUD! And it is a fraud. It always was fraud. Always. Always. Nothing is (really) new here.
The clothes making workshop in “The Emperor’s New clothes” must have had a big sign at the top reading “Amazing Fabric Workshop” … (why? beacuse it was designed as a fraud).
America is a FRAUD too, but it didn’t charge its citizens (customers) the crazy price that every Israeli is mandated to pay from birth. Now EVERYWHERE they begin charging us more and more. We are all becoming ISRAELIS… and at a later stage…. PALESTINIANS.
We should be asking what are these entities really are. I have tried writing about this but people seem to be entrenched in the usual language limitations we have about these fraudsters.
Do we not feel they are laughing at us?
Do we not feel we are in front of some cheap sales technique?
To batter us all into some mental submission? These are not the actions of a state mechanism.
If it ever WAS a state, well - now it isn't anymore. It only retains its *legal* status as a state... but not in reality. It isn't. It is something else.
Without re-evaluating our language towards these mechanisms, we give them a pass in our conciseness as we refrain from naming them.
Will they attack Iran? Yes, they might do that.
On a Jewish date? I wouldn’t put it passed them, it does make some sense.
But we should start thinking about Israel and America as a single corporation of sickness of death and fascism in the guise of “two democracies” with few problems...
We are all shocked and disgusted. Of course. But we can convert our shock into a rational observation of the facts and forget about the terminology we are used to from school days.
When Israel attacks Iran do you think Iran will responsed immediately as they normally take time to respond?. Also will Israel launch a proportional attack on Iran so that Iran responds back proportionally or will they hit Iran hard and serverly.
What a wonderful piece of reflective writing full of thoughtful , insightful narrative that unpicks this terrible and terrifying situation. How did we ever get to this heartbreaking scenario where killing on this scale is not stopped . Why are the west so obsessed with war overthrowing governments all for corporate wealth when they could be trading peacefully across the world ?
Once again, Alon, you have given us a great deal to unpack and consider. I've wondered if Israel made another in an endless series of blunders when it announced it would attack Iran with a decisive blows in shockingly surprising ways. Does Israel believe Iran suffers the same psychological disorientation and unsettling panic as their own arrogant, pompous society suffers from the uncertainty of when the next drones and missiles will be unleashed upon them? Or, given Iran's strategic patience, has Israel given Iran enough time to develop a counter and disruptive plan that will shock and surprise Israel in ways it never imagined possible?
I’d be very surprised if Irad did not have a few aces up its sleeve. And by the way, yes, that’s how Israel thinks, but much of it is just staying in character
Alon, wonderful piece as usual. My one question: is the THAAD really any good? I’ve heard not. Also that the delay in responding was because Iran had demonstrated its accuracy in the prior barrage. And one comment, if I may: I understand your point of view on colonialism. But the likes of blinken and Netanyahu are neither western, nor civilized. There is a reek of the pit about them, as well as smotrich and Ben-Gvir. I hope the Americans have enjoyed meeting the creatures they support. And May God have mercy on them.
Other replies explain why THAAD is not a silver bullet.
But (if you trust Googling) the THAAD radar system can be used to detect Iranian missiles during ascent thousands of km away. If you can just use the radar to project ahead of time where the missiles are targeting it’s useful enough.
Allow me to mili-geek out about THAAD for a moment here. I am not a rocket scientist, and I did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. But I do read a lot of war-bloggers who write about the Russia-Ukraine conflict. They ARE geeks, who know their boost phases from their circular error probabilities. Here’s what I’ve learned about THAAD from their geekiness:
THAAD is a “hit a speeding bullet with another speeding bullet” system. It’s not like the Iron Dome, which explodes a warhead when it’s in proximity to an incoming missile, hoping to shred it with shrapnel. No, the THAAD has to PHYSICALLY collide with something that’s coming down at two or three times the speed of sound, while the THAAD warhead is shooting up at it, also at incredible speeds. Not easy to do. Miscalculate by a fraction of a second and your THAAD is whiffing air. Supposedly they were so crappy when being tested against “incoming” on the proving grounds that the tests had to be revised to give the THAADs a sporting chance. They’ve never been used against ACTUAL missiles whose trajectories aren’t known ahead of time. After all, the U.S. hasn’t been in any shooting wars with countries that are firing ballistic missiles against it.
Plus, according to war-blogger wisdom, it’s standard practice to shoot TWO missiles at every incoming one. To be sure you get a hit. Only, THAADs aren’t plentiful like bullet clips for an AK-47. I’ve seen various estimates that each group of THAAD trucks has between 48 to 96 missiles that it can pop off. Then it’s reloading time, which is not as simple as getting another beer from the fridge. If you divide that in half, you see how many Iranian missiles they MIGHT be able to stop. Iran’s going to be sending many more than that onto Israel’s head.
There’s not scads of THAADs in this world. The war geeks say the U.S. has seven batteries of them. Just 7. In the entire world. And two of them are in Israel. A battery includes the trucks with the launching tubes that everyone sees photos of. Those make an impression on viewers’ minds, because we can all relate to a cylinder where a missile shoots out. Just as important, only rarer and more expensive, are the radars and the command centres. They are why these systems cost in the tens of billions apiece. Super-complex, and they have to work perfectly. Are their IT guys on the control panels good enough? Any bugs in the command code? It was written by programmers. What do you think?
THAAD radars emit a lot of electromagnetic radiation. That can be tracked by devices like antennae or satellites with receivers for such radar frequencies. When the angry launches start, there’s a concept called “counter-battery fire.” The opponent -- Iran -- will send missiles to obliterate the THAAD radar and control centres. Will they get lucky two times? Once? If they do, it’s not like the U.S. has a huge warehouse full of replacements.
Will Iran have the correct coordinates of where these things are? Iran has a few “eyes in space.” Do they fly over the radar and control centres frequently enough to know where they are? The Russians and the Chinese have more satellites than Iran. I’d bet good money that they’ll have “birds” that swoop over and feed Iran the latest, greatest info. Payback for how the U.S. is helping Ukraine hit Russia.
How close will the Iranian missiles land to each THAAD target, and is the blast field from their warheads large enough if they’re not 100% precise? If Iran sends three, or five, or eleventy-seven missiles against each of the two, let me remind you -- TWO -- precious THAAD targets, I’d say their odds are good of killing at least one.
Lastly, because I’m running long here, there’s a concept called “magazine depth.” As in "ammunition magazine" not a 'zine you read. Basically, how many missiles do you have? THAADs are super-expensive, like all U.S. weapon systems. So the military industrial complex has not built stacks of them. How many have they given Israel? How many THAAD-killer missiles does Iran have to shoot? A LOT more than there are of THAADs, almost certainly. Have they gotten THAAD-blasters from Russia and maybe China as well? I reckon the magazine maths are in Iran’s favour.
That’s not even getting into cruise missiles and drones, neither of which are targets that THAADs would be used against. That would be like using your Lamborghini to run over your neighbour’s annoying barky dog when you see it in the street, when your riding lawnmower would do the job just as well for a lot cheaper. They’ll be attacking Israel too if the hornet’s nest is whacked hard enough. In a tense situation like now, Iran will likely be in a “launch upon alert” status. They’re not going to wait to get hit before firing back. As soon as satellites/radar/spies on the ground see Israeli stuff going up, it’s ON like Armageddy Kong. Israel will land some punches, but fists will be headed for its face before the first Zionomite explodes.
To sum it up, THAAD is like so much of the so-called U.S. military supremacy -- sounds good with the sales job, but not likely to work as advertised. Great to scare people with, crap at protecting them.
is the THHAD any good? My guess is not so much against Iran's latest missiles, the hypersonic and the ones that divide into multiple warheads with different targets for each. But what can the US do? It's the best it has. And maybe they hope American soldiers get hurt. Great for the miliary-industrial complex.
I also understand your commend about the people I named, but listen, it's not just them. It's a whole apparatus, with tens of thousands of people or maybe more, all dedicated to the oppression, deceit and exploitation of other people, usually native. So the names you may not agree to and I can kind of get why, but it's not really that personal. People get to where they are because of norms and narratives
Your “drunken son of a powerful politician” analogy touches on a way I like to look at such situations: through the lens of that notable quote attributed to Brutish (sic) Lord Acton -- “power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Israel thinks it has absolute power, because it has the U.S. behind it. Or beneath it. Or because it has parasited itself inside there like one of those hideous Guinea worms. In any case, the genozioniders believe they have absolute power. So they can do the most corrupt, murderous things possible. With impunity! I reckon the IsraelUS combo is NOT as powerful as they delude themselves to be. The rest of the world is out there, and they will have a few things to say. Reality itself will put a bitch-slap on the double-headed hydra. It WILL end as you predict -- with the end of Israel. The only question is, how many others’ lives will end with it?
Ok Alon, I had to read this post twice to understand fully what you are suggesting might happen. This is all excellent. I see a possible book here, that’s how interesting this is. Here’s my thoughts as you continue to observe the last few weeks of the disastrous Biden administration part of this:
- Blinken has been a horrible SecState, as everyone knows. He doesn’t have the education or background needed, the stamina, nor the personality. Compare him to secretary Colin Powell, for instance, even tho he was tricked into lying at the United Nations about WMD, all of us at State loved and admired him, and he was super admired at DOD as well. He was a leader with tons of experience, etc. Biden has no one like that because he thinks he’s so smart he didn’t need them. Wrong!!
- Jake Sullivan is Biden’s Nationality Security Adviser but he has been mostly out of the picture on Gaza. He has tons of State Dept. past experience, is smart and reliable. Where is he in all of this. Where does he stand?
- Matthew Miller is a nobody, don’t waste your time on him, that is a nothing job. No policy input, no ideas, he’s like a soap ad on TV, but he looks like an ass so people like to talk about him.
- yes, USG is acting like the father of a reckless teenage driver. People thought Biden knew foreign policy because of his one hundred years in the Senate. but he sat in DC for all those years having lunches and meeting people. He went to law school, he met lots of people, but he is a horrible judge of character. Then he kisses Netanyahu and the genocide begins.
- Everyone. Everyone. Everyone in the Biden administration is job hunting full time and barely doing anything else. Including Blinken who will join some huge you know what: AIPAC- type of thing. He’s calling people on the Secretary’s plane and updating his resume to include this last useless visit. The only one not looking yet is Kamala bc she’s 50-50 gonna be POTUS. (president of the U.S.)
- American does not remember and we don’t care. Thus on nov 6 everybody in DC including Biden is a nobody. The DEM political appointees have used up all of their sick leave and they depart for the jobs they spent the past six months applying for. If trump wins, Biden can do nothing nothing nothing. Jill starts packing.
- As you have clearly laid out in your posts, things are crazy and it’s a very unpredictable time, most of all for the devastation facing everyone in Gaza. Unfortunately the USG thinks it’s a movie set and does not ever think of the lives at stake overseas and especially not if they are Arabs.
I agree with everything you said here. And I think it's bound to be crazier: an Iran-West war is weeks or months aways. I'm also fairly certain Trump has this: this is going to be a very interesting time to be an American. One unlike any other
Do you see the massive Pro-Palestinan protests worldwide having a chance to stop this madness, or is there some other way?
The protests can be used for building a new movement and conciousness, but only disarming/breaking/defeating Israel will stop this
Thank you, Alon. I read you first thing in the morning for sanity’s sake.
To me the separation people make between Israel and America should have been questioned a long time ago. It’s a single band of fraudsters (not two). No, no, just one. A single one. That’s how they operate. It’s a fact. Not my opinion.
Israel has died in 1948 the moment it was born. It was a stillbirth. Why am I saying this? Because Israel was (and still is) a FRAUD. Why people don’t see it, is beyond me. It must be a social process, just because the newspapers call Israel a State and it has some letterhead saying: MEDINAT ISRAEL, doesn’t mean the fraudsters aren't lying to us.
How can Israel be a state? It has always been a mechanism for agitation.
It has always been a tormentor of its own citizens and its neighbours.
What "State" feeds its children on trauma and sickness as a fixed diet from birth?
How the ENTIRE academic sphere in “ISRAEL” have went along with this national festival???
People need to grasp the magnitude of the madness and use language accordingly (and I admit its not easy thing to do) to describe this entity. It must be a FRAUD! And it is a fraud. It always was fraud. Always. Always. Nothing is (really) new here.
The clothes making workshop in “The Emperor’s New clothes” must have had a big sign at the top reading “Amazing Fabric Workshop” … (why? beacuse it was designed as a fraud).
America is a FRAUD too, but it didn’t charge its citizens (customers) the crazy price that every Israeli is mandated to pay from birth. Now EVERYWHERE they begin charging us more and more. We are all becoming ISRAELIS… and at a later stage…. PALESTINIANS.
We should be asking what are these entities really are. I have tried writing about this but people seem to be entrenched in the usual language limitations we have about these fraudsters.
Do we not feel they are laughing at us?
Do we not feel we are in front of some cheap sales technique?
To batter us all into some mental submission? These are not the actions of a state mechanism.
If it ever WAS a state, well - now it isn't anymore. It only retains its *legal* status as a state... but not in reality. It isn't. It is something else.
Without re-evaluating our language towards these mechanisms, we give them a pass in our conciseness as we refrain from naming them.
Will they attack Iran? Yes, they might do that.
On a Jewish date? I wouldn’t put it passed them, it does make some sense.
But we should start thinking about Israel and America as a single corporation of sickness of death and fascism in the guise of “two democracies” with few problems...
We are all shocked and disgusted. Of course. But we can convert our shock into a rational observation of the facts and forget about the terminology we are used to from school days.
Update:
I added few words to elaborate the F word (fraud)
https://substack.com/home/post/p-150646642
Thank you all.
When Israel attacks Iran do you think Iran will responsed immediately as they normally take time to respond?. Also will Israel launch a proportional attack on Iran so that Iran responds back proportionally or will they hit Iran hard and serverly.
I think that this time we won't have to wait long for a response. And I alao think they want regime change, so the big war is coming
Thanks for the reply bro, really appreciate it
What a wonderful piece of reflective writing full of thoughtful , insightful narrative that unpicks this terrible and terrifying situation. How did we ever get to this heartbreaking scenario where killing on this scale is not stopped . Why are the west so obsessed with war overthrowing governments all for corporate wealth when they could be trading peacefully across the world ?
Because domination is the main thing, and not profit. And this cycle has to break for humanity to find it soul again
Sadly, I think nuclear war is the only thing that will stop this genocide.
Not sure we are there yet, but it needs to be something big and dramatic, yes
Once again, Alon, you have given us a great deal to unpack and consider. I've wondered if Israel made another in an endless series of blunders when it announced it would attack Iran with a decisive blows in shockingly surprising ways. Does Israel believe Iran suffers the same psychological disorientation and unsettling panic as their own arrogant, pompous society suffers from the uncertainty of when the next drones and missiles will be unleashed upon them? Or, given Iran's strategic patience, has Israel given Iran enough time to develop a counter and disruptive plan that will shock and surprise Israel in ways it never imagined possible?
I’d be very surprised if Irad did not have a few aces up its sleeve. And by the way, yes, that’s how Israel thinks, but much of it is just staying in character
Alon, wonderful piece as usual. My one question: is the THAAD really any good? I’ve heard not. Also that the delay in responding was because Iran had demonstrated its accuracy in the prior barrage. And one comment, if I may: I understand your point of view on colonialism. But the likes of blinken and Netanyahu are neither western, nor civilized. There is a reek of the pit about them, as well as smotrich and Ben-Gvir. I hope the Americans have enjoyed meeting the creatures they support. And May God have mercy on them.
Other replies explain why THAAD is not a silver bullet.
But (if you trust Googling) the THAAD radar system can be used to detect Iranian missiles during ascent thousands of km away. If you can just use the radar to project ahead of time where the missiles are targeting it’s useful enough.
Allow me to mili-geek out about THAAD for a moment here. I am not a rocket scientist, and I did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. But I do read a lot of war-bloggers who write about the Russia-Ukraine conflict. They ARE geeks, who know their boost phases from their circular error probabilities. Here’s what I’ve learned about THAAD from their geekiness:
THAAD is a “hit a speeding bullet with another speeding bullet” system. It’s not like the Iron Dome, which explodes a warhead when it’s in proximity to an incoming missile, hoping to shred it with shrapnel. No, the THAAD has to PHYSICALLY collide with something that’s coming down at two or three times the speed of sound, while the THAAD warhead is shooting up at it, also at incredible speeds. Not easy to do. Miscalculate by a fraction of a second and your THAAD is whiffing air. Supposedly they were so crappy when being tested against “incoming” on the proving grounds that the tests had to be revised to give the THAADs a sporting chance. They’ve never been used against ACTUAL missiles whose trajectories aren’t known ahead of time. After all, the U.S. hasn’t been in any shooting wars with countries that are firing ballistic missiles against it.
Plus, according to war-blogger wisdom, it’s standard practice to shoot TWO missiles at every incoming one. To be sure you get a hit. Only, THAADs aren’t plentiful like bullet clips for an AK-47. I’ve seen various estimates that each group of THAAD trucks has between 48 to 96 missiles that it can pop off. Then it’s reloading time, which is not as simple as getting another beer from the fridge. If you divide that in half, you see how many Iranian missiles they MIGHT be able to stop. Iran’s going to be sending many more than that onto Israel’s head.
There’s not scads of THAADs in this world. The war geeks say the U.S. has seven batteries of them. Just 7. In the entire world. And two of them are in Israel. A battery includes the trucks with the launching tubes that everyone sees photos of. Those make an impression on viewers’ minds, because we can all relate to a cylinder where a missile shoots out. Just as important, only rarer and more expensive, are the radars and the command centres. They are why these systems cost in the tens of billions apiece. Super-complex, and they have to work perfectly. Are their IT guys on the control panels good enough? Any bugs in the command code? It was written by programmers. What do you think?
THAAD radars emit a lot of electromagnetic radiation. That can be tracked by devices like antennae or satellites with receivers for such radar frequencies. When the angry launches start, there’s a concept called “counter-battery fire.” The opponent -- Iran -- will send missiles to obliterate the THAAD radar and control centres. Will they get lucky two times? Once? If they do, it’s not like the U.S. has a huge warehouse full of replacements.
Will Iran have the correct coordinates of where these things are? Iran has a few “eyes in space.” Do they fly over the radar and control centres frequently enough to know where they are? The Russians and the Chinese have more satellites than Iran. I’d bet good money that they’ll have “birds” that swoop over and feed Iran the latest, greatest info. Payback for how the U.S. is helping Ukraine hit Russia.
How close will the Iranian missiles land to each THAAD target, and is the blast field from their warheads large enough if they’re not 100% precise? If Iran sends three, or five, or eleventy-seven missiles against each of the two, let me remind you -- TWO -- precious THAAD targets, I’d say their odds are good of killing at least one.
Lastly, because I’m running long here, there’s a concept called “magazine depth.” As in "ammunition magazine" not a 'zine you read. Basically, how many missiles do you have? THAADs are super-expensive, like all U.S. weapon systems. So the military industrial complex has not built stacks of them. How many have they given Israel? How many THAAD-killer missiles does Iran have to shoot? A LOT more than there are of THAADs, almost certainly. Have they gotten THAAD-blasters from Russia and maybe China as well? I reckon the magazine maths are in Iran’s favour.
That’s not even getting into cruise missiles and drones, neither of which are targets that THAADs would be used against. That would be like using your Lamborghini to run over your neighbour’s annoying barky dog when you see it in the street, when your riding lawnmower would do the job just as well for a lot cheaper. They’ll be attacking Israel too if the hornet’s nest is whacked hard enough. In a tense situation like now, Iran will likely be in a “launch upon alert” status. They’re not going to wait to get hit before firing back. As soon as satellites/radar/spies on the ground see Israeli stuff going up, it’s ON like Armageddy Kong. Israel will land some punches, but fists will be headed for its face before the first Zionomite explodes.
To sum it up, THAAD is like so much of the so-called U.S. military supremacy -- sounds good with the sales job, but not likely to work as advertised. Great to scare people with, crap at protecting them.
brilliant! thank you.
Thank you, Enoch
is the THHAD any good? My guess is not so much against Iran's latest missiles, the hypersonic and the ones that divide into multiple warheads with different targets for each. But what can the US do? It's the best it has. And maybe they hope American soldiers get hurt. Great for the miliary-industrial complex.
I also understand your commend about the people I named, but listen, it's not just them. It's a whole apparatus, with tens of thousands of people or maybe more, all dedicated to the oppression, deceit and exploitation of other people, usually native. So the names you may not agree to and I can kind of get why, but it's not really that personal. People get to where they are because of norms and narratives