Palestine Will be Free

And Trump's stupidity, as demonstrated in toddy's meeting with Netanyahu, really helps the good cause

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Everything depends on the Saudis now: the fate of the Middle East, the Palestinian people, and, of course, their own kingdom and country.

There are two big developments we're waiting for at the moment: the first is Israel's attack on Iran, and the other - the willingness of the Saudis to normalize with Israel.

I've spoken plenty about Israel's imminent attack and Iran's potential response; let's consider the picture the Saudis (and the other Gulf principalities and monarchies) are seeing at the moment.

Trump and Israel want the Saudis to normalize with Israel and basically embrace and pave the way for a Greater Israel, the final destruction of the Palestinian people, and the potential removal of Al-Aqsa (as part of an attempt to build a Jewish 3rd temple instead).

This 'normalization' is by no means a partnership of equals, but rather an Arab agreement to live under Zionist and American domination for the rest of their days. Here lies the problem.

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Israel and the US want to dominate the Middle East and have the Saudis give their blessing to this new configuration.

What will the Saudis get in return? What are their potential considerations?

The Saudis will get 'security', namely a US and Israeli boot on their neck presented as a gift. Israel and the US will become the de facto owners of Saudi Arabia and winners of all its contracts and resources. The Saudis will only buy and use US and Israeli equipment, know-how, and software, and will become completely dependent on the pair for their survival and day-to-day operations.

This permanent subjugation will supposedly give SA 'security,' namely guarantee USraeli intervention in case Iran attacks SA. But why would Iran attack SA unless it gets completely identified with Israel and the US, or agrees to be part of a large-scale attack against Iran?

Saudi Arabia is safer when it is independent, and no amount of Usraeli guarantees would be able to protect it from Iran's military in case of an open war: if such a war breaks, its oil industry and palaces will be destroyed. They know that.

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There are also two other major considerations for regional players to make: the stability of Gulf states, and the reliability of American and Israeli promises. Politically, in terms of its position in the Arab world and its internal image at home, becoming the actual executioners of Palestine and open slaves of the US and Israel - this is a bridge too far for Arab leaders.

Such a step would be tantamount to signing away every last bit of remaining legitimacy they still have and declaring themselves to be enemies of most Arabs and their citizens. Maybe they can rely on Usraeli assistance in oppressing their people and survive this. Or maybe they can't. But they will never be legitimate once they assassinate Palestine.

All governments need some measure of legitimacy. If Gulf rulers normalize with openly genocidal Israel, they will become prisoners in their palaces, unable to go anywhere and do anything in their own countries. The people will hate them too much.

Relinquishing Al-Aqsa to be ruled by Zionist hands, which will be the reality once Palestinians are ethnically cleansed from the West Bank, after repeated images and clips of Israeli security forces entering the Mosque, throwing stun grenades and beating up worshipers - that would be seen as a terrible insult to Muslims the world over.

If they do this, Arab rulers will not be able to present themselves as defenders and protectors of Islam.

What are the benefits of a normalization process with no actual security added, many dangers risked, and political and religious legitimacy lost?

And then we need to ask: could the Saudis even trust Trump, the US, and Israel to make good on their promises? I mean, they will be very happy to take advantage of Saudi money, but are they trustworthy and reliable?

Normalizing with Israel and making it ruler of the ME under an American umbrella requires believing the US, and Trumpism will be a dominant global force for at least another generation or two, if not more. Is this the dynamic we're seeing? Is the US getting stronger on the world stage, or is it getting weaker? Is it widening or even maintaining a military, economic, and technological advantage relative to its rivals?

Is the US stable and reliable as a political ally? Can the Saudis, or anyone else, expect the views held by Musk and Trump to represent the US in 5 or 10 years? What will happen to America's collaborators when it changes or becomes seriously unstable?

And what about Israel? Is now the right time to bank on its long-term success? Now? When it's globally hated and under constant threat of a major war or a series of wars? Is this the moment in history for the Arabs to capitulate to US and Israeli power, just as they are diminishing?

Is this the time for Saudi Arabia to distance itself from BRICS and the Global South and make itself a servant of white colonialism, removing all doubts as to who it represents? Can they genuinely get united with a Judeo-Christian political freakshow whose hottest shared sentiment is the hatred of Muslims and Arabs? I don't think it is impossible, but I think it is not far from it.

After the genocide, and given the incredible leap forward China has made in the last decade, and with anticolonial sentiments on the rise everywhere, and with despicable Netanyahu and abrupt and unreliable Trump and US, and considering the potential consequences of making Arab regimes the executioners of Palestine, I think that the chances of such normalization are very, very slim.

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It is far more likely, I believe, that Israel will go to war with Iran, among other things, to prevent an agreement between Trump and the Saudis that would force Israel to recognize Palestine, even in a very narrow and symbolic way.

Israel has the power to force Trump and the US to go to war: it controls Congress and the American media. And, contrary to the image it tries to convey, its options are getting narrower and narrower. To reassert itself, it will choose war - and fail.