Iran Could End Israel in a Few Hours

But you wouldn't know it from Western or the Israeli sources. Here is how such an Iranian attack may play out (and how utterly deluded the Israeli discourse is about it)

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian with Ali Khamenei image source

Israel and Iran have been on a collision course for many decades, but have never been this close to an all-out war, which may be total, with one side emerging as the clear and only winner, and new undisputed dominant force in the Middle East. Given Iran’s remarkable and battle-proven drone and missile capabilities, you’d think Israel would take the threat of a war with Iran extremely seriously. I don’t think it does.

Looking at Israeli opinion pieces and editorials, I’ve never felt more strongly the entire country needs a straitjacket. Senior Israeli security analysts sum up a year of jaw-dropping successes (I swear to God), politicians leak that Israel will attack back, probably oil installations, and pundits declare decisively that the Iranian attack failed. Oh, and there’s the sigh of relief and demand by local politicians in the north for the IDF to define a kill zone in Lebanon.

There is so much delusion in the Israeli discourse post October 7 that it would require serious, dedicated research to document and analyze it. Suffice it to say: nowhere in Israeli media have the potentially devastating consequences of an all-out war with Iran been mentioned, let alone discussed.

In Israeli media, including among some of its few liberal outlets and journalists, It is common practice to downplay Hezbollah’s capabilities and, usually, display a tunnel vision with a twist in the form of a mirror at the opposite end.

Israelis - and it is a national disorder - only ever speak about themselves and see things only from the perspective of a shockingly immature and solipsistic self-interest.

Even when reality hits them hard in the face, they still deny its existence. It is uncanny. It is wild.

What I desire to lay out here, though, is something else entirely: it is my assessment, based on widely available materials, of the destructive potential of a full-on Iranian strike against Israel. To this end, I will present and briefly analyze the major components of such a development, as I see them.

First, let us ask: Alon, have you gone crazy?

Being Alon, and having to at least quickly consider this question, I have to say: honestly, I am not crazy. It does feel a little surreal to discuss the scenario I’m describing here, but perceptibly less surreal than a year or even a month ago. Israel has made it profusely clear it will not stop bombing people till it runs out of bombs, and Iran demonstrated it can damage Israel in a major way. So the likelihood of these two trends colliding has become at least considerable.

And with the US running about as a headless horseman, and the state of the decolonial consciousness being as it is, and taking into account things just feel very serious, and up for a dramatic turn of events - I don’t think my scenario is crazy. I think it is at least somewhat plausible.

So now that we’ve moved past the question of my personal judgment, let’s consider some known and crucial realities.