Did Russia (and Iran) just Outmaneuver Western Colonialism in a Big Way?

Many (myself included) expected a wider, bloody war. Instead, we got a no-show by Russia and the Axis of Resistance. Here's how this is a good thing

Hardly did the last phase of the Syrian war begin, and it was over. Within one week, Assad’s regime was gone. No serious, major fighting took place almost anywhere and, most decisively, the Russians and Iranians did not come to rescue Assad’s forces.

The initial response, at least from people who see things mainly from an anti-imperialist perspective, was an understandable mix of disappointment and fear: were Russia and Iran too weak or too afraid to act and save Syria’s integrity? And if that was the case, what does it say about the wider conflict between the West and the Global South? Could Iran withstand a concentrated Israel-American onslaught? Does Russia have the power to counter the US’s expansionist ambitions?

Those are all legitimate questions. But I want to lay out here what I see as clear benefits of Iran and Russia deciding not to partake any longer in the Syrian war of independence (the opposite of what was presented to us, obviously) against the best efforts of Israel, Turkey, and the US.

What may have clouded our judgment, reading the last developments in Syria, could be an expectation, or even a desire, for military wins. We want the world to be free from external intervention and subversion, and we hate the violence those inflict on countries and communities that we love and care deeply about.

This eagerness for military demonstrations of strength could make us forget that power, politics, or geopolitics, are far from just a story of military might. There are economic, diplomatic, and cultural aspects to all of this, and, most importantly, there is the narrative, or what people believe is happening, and why.

I can’t properly cover the military or economic importance of Syria's fall; it’s not my expertise. We do know with sufficient certainty that Assad’s Syria was not a military or economic powerhouse, but rather a weak, struggling country. So Russia and Iran did not lose a major ally, in this regard; Syria could not be trusted as a pillar of the Axis of Resistance in case of a major war. We’ll leave it at that.

The importance of narrative

But there is the narrative, and in terms of the narrative, this retreat from Syria is a thing of anticolonial beauty. In terms of narrative, until yesterday Russia and Iran had no control over Syria. But now they almost fully do. Let me explain.

Simply put, until last week, who was seen as the responsible party for Syria’s situation? Who was to blame for all its sorrows, instability, poverty, and general mess? It was Assad, and by extension, his main backers: Russia and Iran.

Who is responsible and accountable for Syria as of today? Well, it’s the West’s ‘rebels‘, the US Erdogan and Israel. In one fell swoop, one mostly failed state went from being under Russia’s list of headaches and liabilities to being on America’s.

Who’s going to bear the blame when things go south, as they most probably will? The lack of democracy, the political arrests, the totalitarian laws, the civil strife, corruption, dysfunction, and so on? Well, not Putin, Khamenei, and Assad. They will be in the ‘but we told you so‘ ranks.